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Airbus was correct in one prediction. It envisaged that flights would continue to be hub-to-hub, involving passenger transfers in major airports. (Think of a flight from Europe to Japan, for example, that requires a stopover in Dubai.) Boeing, in contrast, positioned its 787 as a hub-bypass, made for direct “point-to-point” flights. Here, it's Airbus that has been proven correct. As a Centre for Aviation study puts it, “hubs dominate, yet most airlines prefer medium/large aircraft and not the very large aircraft category, consisting of A380s and 747-8s.” In Boeing’s case, figures show that in 2016 a whopping 73 per cent of 787 flights were made between hubs. Yet, for the reason Mason outlines, this has not been enough to save the A380.
In fact, the sheer lack of demand for the A380 is astonishing, says Grant: “Today over half of all fights operated on the A380 are operated by Emirates and less than 20 carriers globally operate the aircraft type. That in itself tells you how little interest there was from other airlines ” In the end, Grant argues, the “egos” of Emirates and Airbus got the better of sound business decisions. “They got carried away in placing too much emphasis on this idea when others, such as Boeing, felt that we would see longer, thinner long-haul routes emerge with new aircraft technology.”
Tom Enders, Airbus’s chief executive, said the decision was “painful”, but promised customers that the A380 will still “roam the skies for many years to come”. Little over a decade ago, the A380 was seen as the future of aviation. But for Airbus, and the airline industry it relies on, the numbers no longer add up.