Some of the lowest-cost synthetic liquid fuels:

 

1. **E85 (Ethanol)**:
   - E85 is a blend of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. It is considered one of the **lowest-cost** fuels in California. In 2022, a record **103.5 million gallons** of E85 were sold in the state. It typically sells for **25 to 40 percent less** than regular gasoline, making it an affordable and environmentally friendly option. E85 significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions compared to gasoline and helps insulate the fuel supply from global oil market fluctuations¹.

2. **Synthetic Fuels via Fischer–Tropsch Process**:
   - Produced using renewable energy via **PEM water electrolysis** and the subsequent **Fischer–Tropsch process**, synthetic fuels (synfuels) are gaining attention. By 2050, large amounts of synfuels are projected to be available for **EUR 110/MWh (USD 203/bbl)** in regions like Africa, Central and South America, and Australia. This represents a cost reduction of more than half compared to 2020 prices. The synfuels' potential follows photovoltaic potentials due to low electricity costs. Batteries play a crucial role in photovoltaic-dominant locations, and transportation costs are relatively low compared to production costs⁶.

3. **Synthetic Methane and Oil**:
   - Initially, synthetic methane and oil may cost between **20 and 30 cents per kilowatt-hour** in Europe. However, as global **Power-to-Gas (PtG)** and **Power-to-Liquid (PtL)** capacity reaches around **100 gigawatts**, costs can fall to **10 cents per kilowatt-hour** by 2050².

4. **eFuel**:
   - eFuel, produced from renewable energy sources, is estimated to cost between **EUR 1.61 and EUR 1.99 per liter** in 2025 (with a 4% blending rate with conventional fuels). By 2050, this cost may decrease to anywhere between **EUR 0.70 to EUR 1.33 per liter** with a 100% blending rate⁸.

Remember that these estimates can vary based on location, technology advancements, and market dynamics. The pursuit of low-cost, sustainable liquid fuels remains essential for our energy future. 🌱🚗💧

Source: Conversation with Bing, 4/12/2024
(1) E85 in California: Lowest-Cost, Fastest-Growing Liquid Fuel Option for .... https://ethanolrfa.org/media-and-news/category/news-releases/article/2023/04/e85-in-california-lowest-cost-fastest-growing-liquid-fuel-option-for-drivers.
(2) Global Potentials and Costs of Synfuels via Fischer–Tropsch Process. https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/4/1976.
(3) The future cost of electricity-based synthetic fuels - Agora Energiewende. https://www.agora-energiewende.org/publications/the-future-cost-of-electricity-based-synthetic-fuels-2.
(4) Costs & Outlook - eFuel Alliance. https://www.efuel-alliance.eu/efuels/costs-outlook.
(5) Companies to commercialise gas to liquids production system. https://biofuels-news.com/news/companies-to-commercialise-gas-to-liquids-production-system/.
(6) A New Liquid Fuel Alternative to Gasoline Developed from Coal. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-New-Liquid-Fuel-Alternative-To-Gasoline-Developed-From-Coal.html.
(7) Using Nuclear Energy to Produce Synthetic Fuels - IEEE Spectrum. https://spectrum.ieee.org/synthetic-fuel.
(8) The future cost of electricity-based synthetic fuels - Agora Energiewende. https://bing.com/search?q=synthetic+liquid+fuel+cost.
(9) undefined. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16041976.